EWG used modeled emissions data from the Energy Innovations Energy Policy Simulator, or EPS. The simulator contains multiple models that show emissions by sector through 2050 under different policy scenarios.
The current policy scenario in which agriculture would make up 18% of U.S. emissions in 2050 comes from the EPS scenario “January 2025 frozen policies.” This models emissions based on U.S. climate policies the Trump administration froze in January 2025, as analyzed by the policy simulator.
The scenario where agriculture would make up 41% of emissions in 2050 comes from the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution scenario, or NDC. The NDC is articulated in a document that describes how the U.S. would have to severely decrease emissions to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement.
The Trump administration withdrew from the Paris Agreement in 2017, and today the U.S. is not on track to meet its NDC emissions targets.
But the targets are still relevant. President Joe Biden re-joined the Paris Agreement in 2021, on his first day in office. President Donald Trump in his second administration again withdrew the U.S. from the agreement. Still, future administrations could re-join the agreement, and the NDC would be even more relevant again.
In the emissions by sector charts in this analysis, the “other” category includes emissions from “water and waste,” as well as “district heat and hydrogen.” Our calculations of total U.S. emissions did not include negative emissions from the land use and geoengineering sectors. The estimates of emissions in 2050 do not include these sectors, so overall net emissions across all sectors would be slightly lower in 2050 if these sectors with negative emissions were included.
Agriculture Department Environmental Quality Incentives Program, or EQIP, payment data comes from a public records request. EWG received the data from the USDA in July 2026. The data represents payments made in fiscal year 2025 and are lower than obligations made that year.
Due to USDA policy, the data from the public records request includes only payments for practices with more than four contracts nationally.
